Why lockdowns might make an economic sense
How they work
Lockdowns are some of the Covid-19 containment measures that are being used in countries around the world. Lockdowns seek to restrict human movement, thereby limiting contact between human beings. Since Covid-19 mainly spreads when uninfected individuals come into contact with fluids from an infected person, we can state theoretically that limiting human contact will limit the spread of the disease.
An unpopular approach
However, lockdowns are largely unpopular. Individuals who are likely to be prevented from engaging in economic activities highly oppose them. Politicians and some policymakers also believe that lockdowns can have serious economic effects such as slowdowns or even depressions. While it is true that lockdowns will lead to slowdowns, in the long run, they might make more economic sense than the lack of them.
Not much can be lost after all. It only takes a few months to come out of a lockdown
Lockdowns have been shown to significantly cut down community transmission of the virus. In a hypothetical case where all movement is totally restricted, we could see the virus being eliminated in just a few months. A few months’ worth of work or lost income is not much. In fact, this lost time and productivity can be recovered within a short period of time. Now pause a little and think what happens if deaths continue to increase due to the lack of the eradication of the virus. It is obvious that when these people die, all their productivity is lost. Now compare this with the productivity lost due to lockdowns. For example, if a person dies while they are 40 years, and supposing the average life expectancy is 79, we can see that they have lost about 39 years of potential productive time. We can see how this is different from the amount lost during lockdowns, which may be less than 6 months.
If governments don’t lock people up, they will lock themselves up later
One way that lockdowns might help save economies is that they can allow the transmission of the virus to be cut within a short time thereby allowing individuals to resume economic activities as soon as possible. Failure to impose lockdowns on the other hand allows individuals to continue spreading the virus. An expected outcome is that at one time, people will start becoming fearful for their health and even without being forced to stay at home, these people may stop going to work. Surprisingly, economic losses that people are trying to avoid while opposing imposed lockdowns will still take place when people start abstaining work voluntarily and all this will happen when a lot of lives have been lost.
We have not yet comprehended the complexity and ability of a single human’s brain
We all know the potential of the human brain, an incredibly complex organ that has allowed humans to conquer the world and do the unimaginable. This organ can be linked to most of the exploits that humans have carried out in this planet, and it is the unique nature of the brain that makes us different from animals. It is also the brain that has allowed us to come up with all the inventions that currently exist. But do you know that when we fail to halt the disease, we continue losing people who have this incredible organ. The human brain is so complex, and is of so much value that even with the billions of dollars that have been invested in artificial intelligence, we have not been able to make machine able to fully mimic the human brain (and we may never be able to). We may not fully appreciate the potential that the brain has but it is obvious that losing these lives prematurely we will be missing out on what they would have offered us with their brains. Such people would have offered us may beneficial things and they would have also been beneficial economically.
Speaking of the human brain, we have seen people who have been regarded as geniuses and the impact they have had in the world economically. Think of Albert Einstein. His inventions have been used world over. If we can estimate the value of the industries which have emerged due to his inventions, their value could be in the tune of billions of dollars if not trillions. We saw Steve Jobs build a trillion-dollar business empire. We know how Elon Musk is revolutionizing the car industry. Thomas Edison’s inventions are another group of inventions that turned the world. Think of other innovators such as Nikola Tesla, Tim Berners Lee, or even Bill Gates. The convenience that we enjoy we enjoy due to the innovations that these people made is immense. Innovations made by Bill Gates company Microsoft have enabled efficiencies in thousands of companies and small businesses in America alone, probably leading to more productivity and cost savings. Governments also use products made by Microsoft, something which leads to more cost savings and more efficiencies. Seeing that these people had such potential, let us think what would have happened if we never had them. Obviously, the industries that they brought up would not exist. The economic benefits that were created due to their inventions would not have been enjoyed. These are some of the prominent examples that can be given, and they show the potential of a single human being to bring change in the world. We have much more people in our midst who, their economic contribution is too much. Loss of such people would be disastrous to the economy, and we are being faced with the risks of losing such people during the Covid-19 pandemic.
We are losing important people during the pandemic
It is not just innovators and business people who have an immense economic impact in the world. We also have people such as researchers. We have had men whose research findings turned the world, leading to creation of entire industries centered around their ideas. The reason they world benefitted from their findings is that they lived. Had they died before they made their research, the changes they made would not have been felt, and this shows how the lives of a few people may make immense impacts. We should be fearful that during this time of the pandemic, we are going to lose such people.
People lost may be needed in rebuilding the ruined economy
We fail to consider the fact that such people will also be essential in ensuring economic recovery after the pandemic is over. During the pandemic, the world may lose important people who may play a significant role in ensuring economic recovery.
A grieving population is not good for work
Deaths may also have a psychological toll on the loved ones of the deceased. It may not be easy to estimate the productive time that may be lost during the grieving process, but a great deal of time will be definitely wasted (since the deaths can be prevented, we can conclude that time lost during grieving is wasted time). Deaths can also be traumatic for some people that they may take long periods of time to fully recover from the losses. Sometimes people may even take more than two years to fully get over the loss of a loved one. Depression is also part of the grieving process. People who have lost a close friend or family member will be depressed at one point in time before they finally accept the loss. Depression is a psychological condition that has been proven to inhibit productivity. With countries having large numbers of depressed people as a result of losses from the pandemic, we expect to see reduced productivity due the large number of grieving citizens, and this will be bad for the economy.
Wealth and income are not one and the same thing
We also make a mistake when we only relate personal incomes to economic gain. We have had people who have made great economic contributions even without having any income. Think of an entrepreneur who works on a product concept. For some time, the entrepreneur may fail to receive any income due from the intended product. With time, he may start profiting from his labor, and eventually may cover up for the time when he worked without ever receiving pay. We have also had stories about how founders of various startups toiled without pay for some time before they first made any profit. Students also serve great examples. They invest years of learning without receiving any pay. Though they do not receive any monetary compensation for their learning, this learning is not without economic value as they are later compensated for offering skilled labor.
Lockdowns don’t imply economic standstills
Many people believe that staying at home means economic loss, and this may not generally be the case. During lockdowns, people are expected to spend most of their times in their homes. Idling will obviously translate to economic loss. However, there are various activities that people can perform at home that can be of economic value. For example, people can take some online course, learn a new skill or even do some physical exercises. All these can be rewarding in future.
On a macroeconomic level, not will people who will be staying at home will be jobless. Many companies have adopted work at home practices and this means that their employees will continue being productive even during lockdowns. Farmers and ranch owners may also continue working on their lands during lockdowns. The fact that different groups of people will still be economically active reduces the economic loss that countries will have.
The cost of treating victims harms the economy
When we claim that lockdowns lead to economic loss, we should also pause and consider the economic loss that the country suffers while treating Covid-19 victims. Just as the treatment of other diseases, the government is incurring costs such as the purchase of the drugs that will be used to treat people who have been infected with the virus. Other costs include the purchase of the personal protective equipment being used by hospital staff. Governments have also spent great amounts of money acquiring ventilators, or even the intensive care unit costs that arise as a result of the pandemic. The extra money that the government uses to treat Corona Virus victims is money that may have been used to fund development projects, which may have created economic value.
Sick people cannot work
When we allow people to engage in economic activities which put them at a risk of contracting the virus, we probably do not know about the economic loss that is brought about by a sick population. When people are sick, they are likely to stay away from work. This is not different among those having Covid-19. Contracting the disease is likely to put the victims away from work. At the time of writing of this article, the United States had recorded over twenty-eight million cases of the disease. With victims of the disease taking about three weeks to recover from the disease, we can see the amount of productive time that is being lost due to a sick population. Sadly, with no containment measures, the disease may infect millions more, keeping more out of work.
Human life is priceless
It is difficult to estimate the value of a human being. A lot of people would agree that human lives are priceless. If we were to put a monetary value on the human soul, the value would not only exceed millions of dollars (or any currency that can be used), but rather it would exceed billions (or even trillions). A common Christian saying is that the human soul cannot be exchanged even with all the wealth in the world. Many religions around the world also highly value life, from Buddhism to Islam and Judaism, all religions have placed this high premium on the human soul. However, the current pandemic has taught us that most people do not appreciate this value. It is evident that even though we talk of the pricelessness of the soul, we really do not know what makes the soul to be priceless. Going by this belief, we can confidently say that just having people alive is great wealth in itself.
Our materialistic eyes are to blame
Over the years, people have adopted a materialistic way of valuing things. We only know how to value things that we can see with our eyes. We have also come to idolize riches and money. In the process, we have started treating important issues as cheap. We pay no regard to people’s emotions. In the current world, many people may not be able to tell the value that peace has in our lives. Neither can we be able to value joy nor happiness.
Conclusion
I do not mean that lockdowns should be imposed because they are good for the economy. Lockdowns can be imposed with the aim of protecting the lives of our citizens. We should treasure these lives and regard them as great riches. It should be out of a heart of love and not out of seeking gain that we make these decisions.
